Hey everyone—
Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories that move the world without making headlines.

I started this weekly newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible to everyone. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralization, or fear mongering. If you agree, make sure to share and subscribe to the Under Report to support my work.

— Eric

P.S. Check out this quick explainer on Davos. Honestly sometimes I have to remind myself what they're doing there besides having fondue.

What happened?
The United States is burning bridges with allies over its quest to acquire Greenland. At present the Trump Administration is threatening an additional 10 percent tariff hike on European countries which don't support the US acquisition of the Danish territory. Meanwhile China and India are looking to fill negative space left by an increasingly belligerent US. Davos is going to be a bizarre slugfest in the snow.

Why does it matter?
Davos is about elite consensus. While it might not be good at solving problems, the World Economic Forum excels at identifying them. This years themes: Geoeconomic stability, weaponization of markets, emerging technological threats, and fractures in the world order. Greenland and Venezuela are the first hits of an aggressive new US foreign policy built around dominating the Western Hemisphere. Question is: will gaining new territory cost old allies? The official Under Report answer is, absolutely yes.

What we’re watching for:

What happened?
After months of attempted integration, the Syrian Army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) have broken into direct conflict. The Syrian Army demands the turnover of SDF held territory including prisons containing Islamic State Fighters, many of whom have already escaped. This has inspired a mass mobilization in the Kurdish region stretching into Turkish and Iraqi Kurdistan. It can't be overstated how dangerous this is.

Why does it matter?
The Kurds have fought, held, and died for their sphere of influence to the West of the Euphrates River only to have the US abandon them to back the Syrian Army. The Kurds have more strategic depth and battlefields experience but The Syrian Army and their Turkish Allies have air power, numbers, and time. This has the potential to turn into a new Syrian civil war but it could also light a fire across the Kurdish world.

What we’re watching for:

Subscribe to continue reading about Sudan's Civil War, Canada's Chinese connection, Europe's free trade and Eric’s Tin Foil Hat.

What happened?
As the war in Sudan grinds toward its third year, a new push for a humanitarian ceasefire is gaining traction among international mediators, regional powers, and some members of the warring parties. There are a couple of big problems here: The first is that the UN is paralyzed while their aid budget has been slashed. The second is that the fight between the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces is too valuable for its foreign supporters. Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are backing the Sudanese Army while the UAE, Chad, and Ethiopia have thrown their weight behind the RSF.

Why does it matter?
Sudan is just an overture for oncoming conflict between Middle Eastern powers in Africa. Sudan is rich in gold, arable land, and gum arabic (used in basically everything). Moreover it contains the valuable transit area for pipelines to the Red Sea. This means that every dollar spent on a foreign mercenary, Turkish drone, or troop advancement will pay huge dividends provided that one side wins. This is an investment opportunity for foreign powers and not a fight for self-determination.

What we’re watching for:

What happened?
Canada and China have begun restoring trade ties after years of diplomatic freeze following arrests, sanctions, and political standoffs. It appears that Canada is weighing the possibilities between maintaining strong ties with the United States or looking East to China.

Why does it matter?
Middle powers are adapting to a more transactional U.S. foreign policy. The Trump Administration operates on clear quid-pro-quo rules, so long as the quid is going into the pocket of Trump himself. Traditional networks of allies are less important than cutting deals which benefit the US. This might be a strategic error for the US but Canada is starting to pivot even if means gaining undue exposure to China.

What we’re watching for:

What happened?
After 25 years of negotiations, the European Union and the Mercosur bloc (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay) signed a sweeping free trade agreement. The deal creates one of the world’s largest trade zones just as U.S.–EU trade tensions spike and Washington makes it clear that South America is squarely in its sphere of influence.

Why does it matter?
This is globalization without Washington. As the U.S. leans toward tariffs and leverage, others are locking in access, markets, and rules. But the economies of both South America and Europe have grown up since the time of the Monroe Doctrine. They can act without the fear of US gunboat parking off the shore of Argentina (we think). Mercosur is a clear demonstration of this.

What we’re watching for:

Everyone remembers playing with the kid who changed the rules to the game to benefit themselves. Eventually, they ended up alone. This is the oncoming reality of the United States. Once the defender of globalization (even for our adversaries) we are now turning away allies for short term gains. There is a possibility that this strategy can work on the short term, but I doubt that the wins will be durable.

Potentially, the US can plant its flag on Greenland under the guise of keeping the world safe from Russia and China. However, if this leads to fracturing NATO we've won a silly battle to lose a very serious war. Collective security is a great deal, individual glory is doesn't make for cohesive statecraft.

Here's how I could see this going well.

Maybe this is strategic arrogance, you say you want the seven figure salary and end up in the high 6s. Sure it's boorish and strange to demand the moon, but if you get a chunk of it, no one will remember the ask in 100 years. Potentially the US gains more of a strategic foothold on Greenland without adding a star to our flag. This secures the Arctic a bit more while maintaining NATO's continuity.

I hope something like that happens. I have my doubts though.

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The_Under_Report” TikTok channel.