Hey Everyone,

Welcome to The Under Report, your weekly intelligence brief about the stories which move the world without making headlines.

I started this newsletter to make geopolitics clear and accessible. We can understand the world without bombastic headlines, partisan moralizing, or fear-mongering. If you agree, share and subscribe to support the work.

Thank you to everyone who subscribes, I'm an independent analyst and my work is supported directly by you.

— Eric

P.S. Scroll to the end of my Tin Foil Hat for a wild video which shows the capabilities of peace time drones.

What happened?
China has removed and placed under investigation multiple senior People’s Liberation Army figures, including Central Military Commission vice chairman Zhang Youxia, one of Xi Jinping’s closest and longest-serving military allies. The official justification is corruption, but the scale and timing mark this as something more serious: a political purge inside the armed forces.

Zhang is not a marginal figure. He helped oversee military modernization and had direct operational authority over key PLA branches. His fall follows earlier removals of senior Rocket Force and equipment procurement officials, hollowing out multiple command layers at once.

Why does it matter?
This is not routine discipline. Xi Jinping appears to be signaling that personal loyalty now outweighs institutional seniority inside the PLA. Historically, large-scale purges weaken command confidence in the short term, even if they strengthen political control in the long term. Remember, when you lose senior leadership, you get rid of institutional memory which can be deadly for a military.

For Taiwan, the U.S., and regional militaries, this raises two competing risks:

Either way, this is a stress test for China’s war-fighting readiness at a sensitive moment.

What we’re watching for:

What happened?
Israel has recovered the remains of the final hostage held in Gaza, Ran Gvili, more than two years after the October 7, 2023 attacks. This fulfills a key condition tied to the current ceasefire framework and removes one of the most emotionally charged obstacles to moving forward. However, Hamas has not yet disarmed which adds complication to the mix.

With the recovery complete, Israel has indicated it will proceed with the next phase of ceasefire implementation, including limited reopening of the Rafah crossing under strict security controls.

Why does it matter?
It can't be overstated how tentative this peace is. Hamas remains armed and Israel has achieved their internally facing goals. This changes the domestic balance of power but does very little to alter external conditions. Without a bargaining chip other than their weapons Hamas could still prove quite dangerous.

The so-called 'Board of Peace’ will now presumably begin rehabilitation operations. It's important to look at this in context, this was a psychological win for Israel and not a material change in situation.

What we’re watching for:

What happened?
US Warships arrive in the Persian Gulf giving the possibility of sustained military operations in the face of the country's nationwide unrest driven by inflation and political repression. While the US mulls strikes against the regime, its unlikely to be a walk in the park.

Iran has prepared a drone swarm which could target the USS Lincoln CSG in the gulf. Moreover, Iranian-backed paramilitaries in Iraq are signaling their readiness to fight for the Islamic Republic.

Why does it matter?
US strategy under the Trump Administration is defined by audacious action and outrageous statements. Threaten Greenland to exact concessions from Europe. Extract Maduro to get Venezuela to bend the knee. One strategy backs the other because adversaries don't know which they are being targeted by.

It is equally likely that Trump is planning military action as it is that he is engaging in diplomatic bluster. Either way Iran has to prepare for both possibilities. However, if the world sees a drone swarm attack on a carrier strike group it is entirely possible that the US suffers an enormous loss due to big talk.

What we’re watching for:

What happened?
The European Union has formally approved a binding ban on Russian natural gas imports, completing a strategic shift that began after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Pipeline gas and LNG imports will be phased out under a defined legal framework.

Despite resistance from a handful of member states, the regulation passed, locking in Europe’s post-Russian energy future.

Why does it matter?
This is a generational geopolitical break. For decades, Russian gas shaped European foreign policy by embedding mutual dependence. That era is now over. Frankly it's shocking that it's taken this many years of war for Europe to stop funding Russia.

The cost will be higher energy prices and long-term infrastructure investment. The benefit is strategic autonomy. Moscow permanently loses one of its most effective tools of coercion over Europe.

What we’re watching for:

What happened?
Russian and Ukrainian representatives held talks in the UAE this week aimed at discussing territorial and security frameworks. There was no breakthrough, and Russian missile and drone strikes continued during the talks.

Diplomacy and violence are proceeding in parallel.

Why does it matter?
This is conflict management, but it's the first time Russia and Ukraine have sit down in the same place at the same time. Both sides are positioning for endurance, not resolution. Russia uses negotiations to probe Western resolve while maintaining battlefield pressure. Ukraine uses them to preserve international support and legitimacy.

Managed wars tend to become long wars.

What we’re watching for:

There's a lot going on right now. This might be the understatement of 2026 and unfortunately I believe it is our new normal. There are a couple of reasons for this:

The first is that the globe is rapidly transitioning from the post-1945 globalized world order to a constellation of spheres of influence. Middle and minor powers are on the table and the spoils of victory will go to whoever can move the quickest. The US wants to box China out of South America, Russia is sprinting to North Africa, and China is trying to leap its regional cage.

The second reason is strategic overwhelm. The wonderful thing about writing about geopolitics is that you can just say strategic at the beginning of anything and it sounds like a conscious choice. Yet I digress. This is a move on behalf of governments and here's how it works.

Overwhelming the domestic side with actions means that no meaningful opposition can be mounted to changing policy. Domestic deadlock over ICE translates to de facto permission for military action abroad. Eyes can only be so many places at once, and when the threat is close to home no one is keeping watch on the near abroad.

My best advice as is an unfortunate symptom of the time: take in all the information and leave your feelings at the door. The powers that be want you overwhelmed and unable to act.

Anyway, as promised, here is an incredible video of peace time drones. Frankly I find them unnerving, but then again, that might just be a symptom of the times.

Eric Czuleger is a journalist and travel writer who has lived and worked in over 47 countries. He holds a masters degree from the University of Oxford and he is completing a National Security degree from the RAND school of public policy. He's the author of You Are Not Here: Travels Through Countries That Don’t Exist, and host of the “The_Under_Report” TikTok channel.